EGYPT: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts

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   1997 1998 1999 2000e
2000/01
Latest period
2001F 2002F
Real GDP growth(%)* 5.3 5.7 4.6 3.6       - - 4.5 5.3
Nominal GDP(US$bn)* 75.5 81.8 88.5 90.7       - - 93.9 98.4
Population(mn) 62.0 62.7 64.0 65.4       - - 66.7 68.1
  
Inflation(%y/y,end period) 4.0 3.6 2.3 2.8 2.6 Sep 3.5 3.8
Exchange rate(EGP/US$,end period) 3.39 3.42 3.42 3.88 3.82 15-Jan 3.90 3.85
Exchange rate(EGP/EUR$,end period) 3.73 4.04 3.44 3.30 3.60 15-Jan 4.01 4.42
Discount rate(%,end period) 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Jul 12.3 12.5
Budget deficit(%of GDP)* -0.9 -1.0 -4.2 -3.8 - - -3.5 0.0
  
Oil output('000b/d) 880 860 840 820 820 Jun 800 780
Oil price(opec basket,US$/b) 18.77 12.28 17.47 27.60 24.62 15-Jan 22.00 18.00
Oil export revenues(US$bn)* 2.58 1.73 1.00 1.80 - - 2.50 2.40
Exports fob(US$bn)* 5.35 5.13 4.45 6.39 1.66 Jul-Sep 7.78 8.47
Imports fob(US$bn)* 15.57 16.90 17.01 17.86 4.03 Jul-Sep 18.00 18.25
Trade balance(US$bn)* -10.22 -11.77 -12.56 -11.47 -2.37 Jul-Sep -10.22 -9.78
Current account(US$bn) 0.12 -2.48 -1.72 -1.30 -1.12 Jul-Sep -1.20 -1.05
% of GDP* 0.16 -3.03 -1.95 -1.43       -       - -1.28 -1.07
Foreign reserves(ex gold, US$bn) 18.66 18.12 14.48 13.80 13.289 Sep 16.00 18.00
Import cover(mths)** 11.2 9.9 8.1 7.3 8.2 Apr 8.3 12.2
  
Foreign debt(US$bn) 28.78 28.08 28.22 30.50   Oct 30.50 31.50
 -% of GDP 38.14 34.35 31.90 30.63 -       - 30.14 28.44
Debt service ratio(%) 12.66 10.90 10.80 9.90 -       - 9.20 9.00
               
f = forecasts (bold). * fiscal year ending 30 June (1998 = 97/98)** number of months import of goods & services covered by FX reserves & gold.

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